Why Donald Trump's win here terrifies Arizona Republicans

Donald Trump's convincing victory in Tuesday's Arizona winner-take-all presidential primary advanced the celebrity billionaire's march to the Republican Party's nomination.

As the thought of Trump as the GOP's national standard-bearer is starting to sink in, some Republicans in the state are increasingly worried he could put the party's candidates for down-ticket races in jeopardy in November.

Although Trump garnered an impressive win in the state's presidential preference election, polls suggest he could be a weak general-election contender, even in a traditional red state such as Arizona.

Trump favors policies and has made numerous remarks that have offended Latinos, women, Muslims and other Americans.

In Arizona, that could hurt other Republicans running for office as they're forced to defend their party's nominee and because it could depress GOP turnout while motivating Trump critics to the polls.

Nationally, political analysts say, Trump as the GOP nominee could flip control of the U.S. Senate from the Republicans to the Democrats.

Trump's nomination is not a done deal, and many establishment Republicans are desperate for an opportunity to stop it. A contested or brokered Republican National Convention is a possibility, but thanks to victories like he had in Arizona on Tuesday, Trump appears to have the only plausible shot of reaching the minimum 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the party's nod.

The effect on Arizona races feared

In Arizona, the GOP name on the Nov. 8 ballot directly under Trump's could be veteran U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., provided he clears his party's Aug. 30 primary.

Republican efforts to hold or win the state's three competitive congressional districts also could be complicated by Trump if, as some political experts warn, it drives independents, women and minority voters away from the GOP and even keeps many Republicans home on Election Day.

Freshman U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., potentially could have a tough fight in southeastern Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. Republicans also are angling to replace U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., who is running for McCain's Senate seat, in the state's sprawling rural 1st Congressional District.

"The establishment is so frightened about the effect down the ticket," said David Berman, an Arizona State University professor emeritus of political science and senior research fellow at the Morrison Institute for Public Policy. "I think they'll start backing away from Trump."

Donald Trump wins Arizona primary

A statewide poll conducted March 7-11 by veteran Arizona political scientist and pollster Bruce Merrill gives Republicans some reasons for concern.

The telephone survey of 701 likely Arizona voters found Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, who handily defeated her rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, in Tuesday's primary, tied with Trump 38 percent to 38 percent in a hypothetical Arizona general-election matchup. Another 9 percent liked neither, while 15 percent were undecided.

Sanders, who continues to trail in the Democratic delegate count far behind Clinton, the former secretary of State, also would be competitive with Trump in November, according to Merrill's poll. Sanders leads Trump 39 percent to 36 percent with 7 percent preferring neither and 18 percent undecided.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Trump's main competition still in the GOP race, does a little better against Clinton, polling ahead of her 41 percent to 35 percent with 10 percent wanting neither and 14 percent undecided.

Merrill's poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

"My gut tells me that it's not good for the Republicans down ticket," said Jaime Molera, a Phoenix Republican consultant. "Why would the national Republicans, almost to a person, say, 'We'll galvanize around Ted Cruz before we'd go with Donald Trump'? I think a lot of it is the fear that there could be some down-ticket repercussions."

Cruz, the conservative Senate outsider, has picked up support from some of his past 2016 opponents, including GOP establishment favorites such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

Democrats in Arizona and across the country are ready to use Trump against rank-and-file Republican candidates.

When Trump was in the state Saturday for rallies in Fountain Hills and Tucson, the Arizona Democratic Party denounced his campaigning as a "Make America Hate Again" tour — playing off his campaign slogan "Make America Great Again."

The party slammed his presidential candidacy as "hate-mongering."

“Donald Trump’s values don’t represent Arizona at all,” state Democratic Party spokesman Enrique Gutierrez said in a written statement.

'Everybody in Arizona knows John McCain'

Trump has already become an issue in McCain's re-election race.

Despite their high-profile feud last summer, McCain has been under pressure to say he would not support Trump at the top of the GOP ticket.

Kirkpatrick, the Democratic Senate candidate, released a video linking McCain's refusal to disavow Trump with a host of controversial Trump comments about women and violence.

On Wednesday, McCain, the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, reiterated on CNN that he would work with Trump as president on the war against the terrorist Islamic State and on other national-security challenges.

"I would do the best that I can to help any president as we are facing the greatest crises since the end of World War II," McCain said. "... I have to work with any president to try to prevent further attacks on the United States of America, which I will tell you right now is probably going to happen — most likely going to happen — because of a failure of this president's (Barack Obama's) leadership in allowing all of this to happen, beginning with withdrawing everybody from Iraq."

At border, Arizona voters not wild about building Donald Trump's wall

Merrill's statewide poll showed an Arizona Senate race between McCain and Kirkpatrick is essentially tied. McCain edges Kirkpatrick 41 percent to 40 percent, well within in the margin of error. Another 3 percent preferred neither candidate and 16 percent were undecided.

Former Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., a longtime friend and ally of McCain's, has personal experience with a down-ticket electoral massacre. Kyl's father, the late former Rep. John Kyl, R-Iowa, lost his seat in Congress in 1964 as part of a national backlash against that year's GOP nominee, then-Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Ariz. Voters returned Kyl's father to Congress in the 1966 election.

President Lyndon Johnson and the Democrats picked up 37 House seats and one Senate seat in the 1964 landslide.

At border, Arizona voters not wild about building Donald Trump's wall

But Kyl said 2016 so far has been unpredictable and it's unclear which voters would or would not turn out to back Trump in the general election and how they would vote down-ballot. In any event, Kyl predicted McCain is such a well-established name in Arizona politics — he was the 2008 Republican presidential nominee and is seeking a sixth, six-year Senate term — that it would be more difficult for the Democrats to tether him to Trump.

"Everybody in Arizona knows John McCain, and they're either going to vote for him or against him based upon his long history here," Kyl said.

Nathan Sproul is a local Republican consultant who was an Arizona campaign co-chair for Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida who exited the GOP presidential race on March 15.

Sproul said Trump likely would create problems for Republicans running statewide in "purple" swing states and for GOP candidates running in contested congressional districts.

"There's no way to get around the 'Do you agree with Donald Trump about ...' question," Sproul said. "And, unfortunately, there's a lot of things that can go after that: 'how he talks about women; the things he has said about (Russian President Vladimir) Putin; his views on immigration.'

"There are a lot of things that a Democrat can hang around a Republican's neck," he said.

However, Sproul added he doesn't believe Arizona falls into the "purple" category yet.

"I don't think Senator McCain's re-election is in jeopardy because of Donald Trump, but it's certainly a headache," Sproul said. "At the appropriate time, Senator McCain will say what he believes about Donald Trump. I think Arizona is probably the wrong state to prove that theory in, but there are going to be some other states where it's going to be a problem."

McSally, who sat out the Arizona primary without endorsing a GOP presidential candidate, also has proven to be an effective fundraiser, which could help her blunt any negative Trump effect, he said. But, he added, it could pose problems for Republicans in some parts of CD1.

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who unabashedly endorsed Trump and campaigned for him, is another Republican up for re-election this year. Arpaio said he has no worries about running with Trump at the top of the ballot.

Arpaio, who will face voters for the first time since a federal judge ruled that his Sheriff's Office engaged in racial profiling, suggested GOP in-fighting is a bigger threat to Republicans' chances in November than Trump.

"I'm just a little disturbed at the way they're treating him," Arpaio said. "Many Republicans can't give him any credit. It's killing them just to give him a little credit. They want him out, and they're doing everything they can, but it's not working. He's going to be nominated and I hope everybody joins together to beat whoever runs for president (on the Democratic side).

"I've never seen anything like this. I've been involved in presidential campaigns, but I've never seen our own party go after someone."

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