NEWS

Kirkpatrick's Senate run leaves 1st District wide open

Rebekah L. Sanders
The Republic | azcentral.com
Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s decision to run for U.S. Senate, challenging Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain, throws open the 2016 race for one of the most competitive U.S. House seats in the nation.
  • Candidates are expected to flock to the seat U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick will leave open.
  • Among Democrats%2C the field could include Navajo and Latino candidates and state lawmakers.
  • Republicans could recruit candidates seeking a comeback%2C state lawmakers and rural politicians.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's decision to run for U.S. Senate, challenging Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain, throws open the 2016 race for one of the most competitive U.S. House seats in the nation.

The absence of an incumbent in northern Arizona's 1st District race will likely attract a bigger field than in years past. But many potential candidates, caught off guard by Kirkpatrick's surprise Tuesday announcement, said that before making a decision they would likely wait for a looming U.S. Supreme Court ruling that could lead to the Republican-controlled Arizona Legislature redrawing the state's congressional boundaries.

Candidates may wish to see whether their homes fall within the new district and how far it tilts toward the GOP.

National Democrats said they aren't worried about holding onto the seat, despite not having a candidate in place. Kirkpatrick plans to help with recruitment.

"Democrats know what it takes to win in this district, as we have proven repeatedly," said Matt Thornton, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman in a statement. "We are confident we will have a strong candidate who will keep this district in the Democratic column in 2016."

Republicans see the shakeup as a ready-made chance to flip the district, after failing the past two cycles. The Cook Political Report, which performs nonpartisan political analysis, found that only three of 188 House seats held by Democrats are more Republican than the 1st District.

"No matter how they try to spin it, this is a huge setback for House Democrats. The 1st District is a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans in 2016," Zach Hunter, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a written statement.

The 1st District stretches nearly the length of Arizona, including Flagstaff, suburbs of Tucson and the Navajo Reservation.

So far only one candidate, Republican Gary Kiehne, has launched a 2016 campaign.

Kiehne, a hotel operator, rancher and oilman, poured about $400,000 of his own money into the race last election and lost the primary, barely. He ran into trouble over controversial statements on the campaign trail.

Reached by phone, Kiehne would not comment on Kirkpatrick's Senate run, directing questions to campaign consultant Chris Baker.

"We've always believed she was vulnerable, and her decision to run for the U.S. Senate is evidence of that," Baker said by e-mail. "The Kiehne campaign liked the way the race was setting up for 2016 before Kirkpatrick's decision, and we feel the same way now."

Conversations with potential candidates and political operatives lay out a number of other possible contenders.

On the Democratic side:

• State Sen. Catherine Miranda notified media outlets that she is "strongly exploring" a run and indicated a strategy of targeting women, Latinos and independents. The announcement caused some head scratching because Miranda represents parts of Phoenix and has never lived in the district. But she may not want to pass up a chance at an open congressional seat after forgoing the opportunity last election in Phoenix's 7th District.

• Chris Deschene, a former state lawmaker, is considered a top recruit. He gained major name recognition last year in one of the most controversial Navajo presidential elections when he was disqualified for not speaking the tribe's language fluently. Deschene may not want to give up his appointment to a position in the U.S. Department of Energy announced last week, but he is weighing a campaign, according to a spokeswoman.

• State Sen. Carlyle Begay would bring Navajo roots to the race as well. He came under fire from Democrats for supporting the Republican state budget this year, but he might be able to play that as evidence of his independence, an essential in this toss-up district.

• Another possibility is Coconino County Board Chair Elizabeth Archuleta, who has served nearly two decades and speaks Spanish. Reached by phone Tuesday, Archuleta said she is fielding calls urging her to run and will make a decision after consulting family and supporters.

• Also mentioned is State Sen. Barbara McGuire, who lives in the small town of Kearny, in the 1st District.

On the Republican side:

• Former state House Speaker Andy Tobin has been considering a second run for the seat. Tobin beat Kiehne for the GOP nomination in 2014. But after a bruising and expensive primary that drained his campaign funds, Tobin was crushed by Kirkpatrick in the general election.

Tobin said in a phone interview that he would like "to go back and recapture that seat for Republicans." But he plans to wait for the redistricting case to play out. It's premature to collect signatures and hold events in a district whose shape could change dramatically, he said. Tobin, who launched the redistricting lawsuit, was criticized last election for not living in the district.

• State Sen. Steve Pierce, former Senate president and majority whip, told the Republic he is interested.

• House Speaker David Gowan has been rumored to be looking for an opening in southern Arizona, in the district represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Martha McSally. The open 1st District may provide another opportunity for Gowan, especially if redistricting extends the district southward.

• Jonathan Paton, an Iraq War veteran and former state lawmaker who lost to Kirkpatrick in 2012, could dust off his old campaign network. He previously ran for Congress in Tucson.

• Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett has been considering a campaign in various districts since leaving office after an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign last year. Bennett is from Prescott and lives in Phoenix, both outside the current district, but that hasn't stopped other candidates.

• David Tenney, a former Navajo County Supervisor, could have a base of support, but he may not want to give up a recent appointment by Gov. Doug Ducey to the Residential Utility Consumer Office.

• Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, who dropped out of a 2012 congressional bid amid scandal, and Payson Mayor Kenny Evans have been mentioned as possibilities. State Sen. Steve Smith, of Maricopa, could also be a contender.

Republic reporter Mary Jo Pitzl contributed to this report.