Kelli Ward burning through U.S. Senate campaign cash

Kelli Ward, the best-known of U.S. Sen. John McCain's Republican primary challengers, likely will need significant outside financial help from national "tea party" organizations, political analysts said Friday, based on fundraising and spending details revealed in her most recent campaign-finance report.

Ward, a former state senator from Lake Havasu City, raised $141,772 in the last three months of 2015 but spent more than $203,000, much of it on consultants, in the same period, according to her fourth-quarter report made public Feb. 9 by the Federal Election Commission. Her campaign reported still having $259,402 on hand as of Dec. 31, down from $320,871 on Sept. 30.

Ward's campaign also listed $94,877 in debt, which reflects $85,000 she loaned it last year.

In total, her campaign in 2015 spent more than $410,000 of its $670,000 in total receipts.

And the actual election year hadn't even started yet.

"The bottom line is she's got $259,000 in the bank, and that's a modest amount for a competitive House candidate, let alone challenging a longtime Republican senator in a primary," said Nathan Gonzales, a political analyst who edits and publishes the non-partisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report in Washington, D.C. "I think it's going to take more money than that, and as long as the outside groups stay on the sidelines, it's tough to see how she gets there."

National "tea party"-aligned organizations such as the Senate Conservatives Fund, FreedomWorks and the Club for Growth have expressed interest in possibly siding with a GOP challenger to McCain, a five-term establishment Republican who many conservatives deem too liberal and view as potentially vulnerable. But the groups wanted either U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon or U.S. Rep. David Schweikert to take him on in the Senate primary, and both Arizona Republicans have declined.

"In the early stages of campaigns, what you really want is low overhead and you want to bank as much money as you can. And that's not really what Ward is doing," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes U.S. Senate races for the non-partisan, Washington-based Cook Political Report. "It's not where she wants to be right now, especially against an incumbent who has plenty of money."

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McCain's campaign reported $854,804 in net contributions ($957,318 in total receipts) for October, November and December and had $5.1 million on hand as of Dec. 31.

The details in Ward's report are new; preliminary fundraising and cash-and-hand numbers last month were reported in an "exclusive" story on the conservative news website Breitbart.com, but neither Ward nor her campaign at the time would confirm the figures to The Arizona Republic. On Friday, Ward and her campaign again did not respond to The Republic's request for comment on her campaign fundraising and spending priorities.

In a Feb. 11 interview on Phoenix radio station KFYI-AM (550), Ward discussed a recent bus tour, adding that her campaign is experiencing "extreme momentum" and that a "Ward tsunami" is brewing "across the whole state." She also cited the support of the groups Tea Party Nation and Gun Owners of America and an endorsement from State Superintendent of Public Instruction Diane Douglas.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said the volatile political atmosphere and prevalent anti-Washington mood would seem to make McCain, who was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, susceptible to an insurgent primary attack. But he isn't sure Ward can pull it off.

"It's hard for me to believe that this is a significant challenge," said Sabato, whose namesake Sabato's Crystal Ball website tracks political races around the country. "The only thing that makes me question my own view is that, since 2010, we have seen shocking upsets."

John McCain staying ahead of Senate rivals in cash race

A telephone poll of 221 Republican voters conducted in January by Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center found McCain leading Ward 47 percent to 11 percent, but 39 percent remained undecided. Three other GOP primary candidates -- Alex Meluskey, David Pizer and Clair Van Steenwyk -- each had 1 percent support. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.7 percentage points.

The same statewide poll found McCain in a close race with U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, the expected Democratic nominee in the Senate race. It showed McCain at 38 percent and Kirkpatrick at 37 percent, with 25 percent undecided.

That full sample of 590 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

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Nowicki is The Republic's national political reporter. Follow him on Twitter at @dannowicki and on his official Facebook page.