Tobin scrambles to stay ahead in GOP primary

• One of Arizona's top Republican leaders, Andy Tobin, is in the fight of his life as he runs for Congress.
• His two inexperienced challengers remain competitive despite afflicting their campaigns with a made-for-TV reel of bloopers.
• The turn of events seemed inconceivable months ago when Tobin was crowned by the Republican establishment as the best foe to beat U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz. in one of the most competitive swing districts in the country.

Less than two weeks away from primary-election day, one of Arizona's top Republican leaders is in the fight of his life as he runs for Congress while his two inexperienced rivals remain competitive despite their made-for-TV bloopers.

State House Speaker Andy Tobin's predicament seemed inconceivable months ago when he was crowned by the Republican establishment as the best challenger to U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz. The two-term Democrat is defending a swing district that is one of the GOP's top targets this fall.

But since Tobin's campaign launched in the 1st District, things have gone downhill.

In one of the most crucial periods of the race, from July to early August, Tobin was outspent nearly 2 to 1 by one Republican opponent, rancher and oilman Gary Kiehne, who has sunk nearly $450,000 of his own money into the race, according to fundraising reports filed Thursday. And Tobin barely managed to out-raise his other opponent, state lawmaker Adam Kwasman.

In total during the most recent period, Federal Election Commission reports show Kiehne raised about $119,000, nearly all his own funds; Tobin raised about $40,000; and Kwasman raised about $31,000.

Tobin has not aired a television commercial despite his opponents plowing more than $300,000 into TV ads in recent weeks. An outside group, Hometown Freedom Action Network, dropped at least $70,000 on ads in support of Kwasman.

"We're pleased with the effect our TV ads have had," Kiehne spokesman Chris Baker said. "We feel good about the campaign so far."

Baker dismissed criticism from Kiehne's opponents that he is trying to "buy" the election with his wealth.

"That's a tired argument," Baker said. "Kiehne using his own money makes him no different from (Republican congressmen) David Schweikert, Matt Salmon and Trent Franks, who have all put money into their races."

Tobin has deployed a different strategy, relying heavily on mailers and local events to connect with voters, since television is expensive and reaches fewer viewers in the rural district, which stretches from Flagstaff to suburbs of Tucson, campaign manager Bill Cortese said.

"We don't have Gary Kiehne's money. But we're in the mailboxes. We've been out and about," Cortese said. "The strategy we've had is effective. I think it's working and is going to give us a victory."

Kwasman attacked Tobin's funders as lobbyists and special interests drawn from his time at the state Capitol. Tobin has also employed his son, paying him about $16,000 so far.

Cortese said the other candidates have accepted money from lobbyists and special interests as well. He said Mike Tobin, the candidate's son, has worked hard and earned his pay.

Tobin is the only candidate who can beat Kirkpatrick, Cortese said, given his opponents' gaffes in the primary. "These guys have completely bungled their campaigns," he said.

Kwasman endured national ridicule for mistaking a bus full of YMCA campers for undocumented child migrants being transported by federal officials at a protest amid the recent border crisis. He attracted criticism for keeping hidden for a year that he has cancer, though he is expected to have no symptoms for years.

Kiehne has drawn attacks for making controversial comments about shooting a game warden, Vietnamese immigrants, police officers and mass shooters.

"Our opponents have drawn the clearest contrast you can draw about who can handle issues like an adult," Cortese said, and "people who say stupid things."

The television battle could even out if the U.S. Chamber of Commerce swoops in during the last days of the race to support Tobin. The primary is Aug. 26.

The powerful business lobby this week held an event to boost Tobin. Three days later, Tobin posted commercial-ready video footage on his YouTube channel that an outside group like the chamber could easily use to craft an ad.

Rob Engstrom, national political director, declined to say if the chamber planned to spend money in the race. But he said it's important for Tobin to win.

"This is a top three race for us nationally," Engstrom said. "We're trying to find people who are conservative, who can be elected, and who — when they get (to Congress) — can get something done."

"This is a guy we need," Engstrom said.

Kirkpatrick is far ahead of her Republican rivals in fundraising, with nearly $1.4 million in the bank.

She attended a swanky gathering in Napa Valley, Calif., this weekend with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and her largest donors, according to Politico.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has accused Kirkpatrick of being in Pelosi's pocket, voting in lockstep with the Democratic Party.

"The NRCC is launching partisan attacks over this event because they can't attack Ann for all her (Veterans Affairs) reform community meetings, job fairs and small-business visits," spokesman D.B. Mitchell said in a statement. "They are desperate to divert attention from the three-ring circus that is the Republican primary, where all three candidates' campaigns are sheer embarrassments."

In other races:

• Republican favorite Martha McSally out-raised U.S. Rep. Ron Barber, D-Ariz., once more in the toss-up 2nd District. She took in nearly $383,000, compared with Barber's $246,000. She remains behind in cash on hand. She has about a million dollars in the bank, compared with Barber's nearly $1.5 million.

McSally is expected to easily beat her primary challengers, Chuck Wooten and Shelley Kais, who raised less than $10,000 combined. McSally narrowly lost to Barber in 2012.

• U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., remained a top fundraiser, collecting about $232,000. She spent nearly a million of her reserves to set aside TV advertising in the fall, when she will face one of two Republican challengers, Wendy Rogers or Andrew Walter.

Rogers raised about $51,000, and Walter took in about $21,000.

• Democratic rivals Mary Rose Wilcox and Ruben Gallego were close in fundraising, with roughly $133,000 to $106,000, respectively, in the tight primary to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Ed Pastor, D-Ariz.

Gallego has raised more in total. And he has been supported by about $84,000 in TV ads and mailers from an outside group tied to unions, Revitalize Arizona.

The other Democrats in the race, the Rev. Jarrett Maupin and Randy Camacho, failed to file reports. Independent Jose Peñalosa and Libertarian Joe Cobb collected nearly nothing.