Climate change cited in Arizona wildfire forecast

• State officials predict a %22fairly standard%22 wildfire risk this year.
• Gov. Doug Ducey urged Arizonans to use common sense when in the forests%2C chaparral.
• Highest risk in pine forests%2C along riverbeds%2C and in southeastern Arizona.

Climate change is contributing to the risk of wildfires across Arizona, state officials acknowledged Thursday. But they dodged questions about what is causing the changing environment, which has contributed to massive wildfires in Arizona over the last two decades.

They urged Arizonans to take precautions while in the state's forests and chaparral. That includes extinguishing campfires completely and reporting violations of fire-safety practices.

"I think that there is climate change," Gov. Doug Ducey told reporters. "What I am skeptical about is what human activity has to do with it."

Arizona faces a "fairly standard" wildfire season, with risk highest in the pine forests, along riverbeds and in the southeastern grasslands, state officials said.

Jeff Whitney, Ducey's appointee as state forester, also ducked a question about the origins of the shifting climate.

"Let's not get into why the climate is changing," Whitney said. "But it is climate."

Already, 300 fires have burned across 1,000 acres in Arizona, Whitney said. The fire season is expected to begin around Memorial Day and run until the monsoon brings rain and humidity, usually in July.

Whitney touted the Firewise program, which encourages property owners to keep brush, tree limbs and other flammable materials away from their homes. This clears a safe zone around a property where an approaching wildfire would have a good chance to "lay down" instead of being fueled by the materials around a home.

Whitney said he's seeing an eerie similarity in fire conditions to two major fires that occurred in the last two decades: the Rio fire of 1995 in the McDowell Mountains of north Scottsdale, and the Cave Creek Complex fire of 2005, which burned north of Cave Creek and Carefree. Those fires were fueled by tinder-dry grasses and scrub that grew rapidly after a fairly wet winter, he said.

Chuck Maxwell, a meteorologist with the Southwest Coordination Center, said there will be some relief in that officials are not expecting high winds this season, which can quickly turn a small blaze into a major conflagration.

"This is not going to be a windy, driving, take-off-quickly fire season," he said. However, the center's forecast predicts a greater likelihood of lightning strikes igniting fires, especially in dry, grassy areas, he said.

But even with lightning posing a potentially greater risk this year than last, Ducey and others noted most fires are human-caused, and therefore, preventable.

"I caution everyone to follow the law," Ducey said. "Be safe, be smart, have fun and practice common sense."

Reach the reporter at maryjo.pitzl@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-8963.