ARIZONA

5 key takeaways: Rep. Trent Franks' surprise resignation

Ronald J. Hansen Yvonne Wingett Sanchez
The Republic | azcentral.com
U.S. Rep. Trent Franks on Capitol Hill in 2011.

U.S. Rep. Trent Franks quit Friday after allegations of sexual harassment he said stemmed from inquiries to female staffers about becoming surrogate mothers.

Here are five key takeaways from his surprise resignation:

1. The name will change, not the initial after it

Franks' 8th District is among the safest for Republicans in Arizona. Democrats will fight harder than before in the West Valley, but it is almost certain to remain a GOP seat.

The district collectively voted for Donald Trump by 21 percentage points last year. That trailed only the northwestern Arizona district for outsized GOP support in the race for the White House.

As of October, voter registration hadn't shifted much from last year. Republicans claimed 41 percent of registered voters there and Democrats had 24 percent.

None of those expected to contend for the Republican nomination suggest a stark shift from Franks' conservatism.

State Sen. Debbie Lesko, for example, is an advocate for school choice. State Sen. Steve Montenegro has worked for Franks. 

MORE:Full text of Arizona Rep. Trent Franks' resignation letter

2. More seat shuffling ahead

Franks' resignation creates another high-profile opening.

Sen. Jeff Flake's retirement has created an open Senate seat. Many Republicans have weighed entering the race, but it still lacks a top-tier challenger to former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Rep. Martha McSally is expected to enter the Senate race, creating an opening in her ultra-competitive Tucson-area district.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is leaving her north-central Phoenix district to seek the Democratic nomination in the Senate race. That has Republicans eager to compete for a winnable seat.

Republicans are searching for a viable candidate to challenge Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in the district that covers northeastern Arizona.

Now there is an opening for a seat any Republican nominee can figure to win for the foreseeable future.

And everyone is waiting to see how long Sen. John McCain's health will allow him to remain in the Senate. 

Put it all together, and Republican voters have a lot to sort out in the coming months.

3. The GOP loses a vote for tax cuts

Franks had planned to remain on the job for more than a month. His abrupt resignation Friday means Republicans now have one less vote to pass amended tax-cut legislation.

Franks was among the most conservative members of the House of Representatives and helped pass tax cuts by a 227-205 margin in November. 

The House and Senate must negotiate identical bills that can pass both chambers. There is broad agreement among Republicans but some of the more controversial provisions may splinter support for the bill. If that happens, Republicans will need every safe "yes" vote they can find. 

Republicans still hope to send a tax cut bill to President Donald Trump by Christmas. Franks' absence adds a small measure of drama on whether Republicans can muster the votes they need.

4. There's a down-ballot shakeup

State Sen. Kimberly Yee is among those expressing an interest in the Franks seat. That comes after she's already announced her candidacy for state treasurer. 

If she opts for Congress, that could make life easier for Corporation Commissioner Tom Forese, who long ago said he's running for the treasurer post.

Similarly, a Montenegro run could simplify Secretary of State Michele Reagan's political future. He's challenging the incumbent Reagan in the GOP primary.

Former state lawmaker Phil Lovas could leave his job with the Small Business Administration to make a run. If he does, he would be an immediate contender for a presidential endorsement, which is seen as especially critical to winning GOP primaries at the moment.

5. Democrats remain practically invisible

If Republicans dream about competing in every race around the state, Democrats are staring at the reality of a thin bench of candidates in districts such as Franks'.

Hiral Tipirneni, an emergency room physician and political novice, is running against Franks. Her chances are likely little changed in a district overflowing with Republican voters. She raised $74,000 from donors in the most recent quarter.

Brianna Westbrook raised $7,100 in the most recent quarter.

What's missing, at least for now, is a Democrat with elective experience who can credibly challenge in a conservative district.

READ MORE

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