Roberts: With Joe Arpaio in, will Ward get out of Arizona's Senate race?

The dust continues to dance after Joe Arpaio’s bombshell announcement Tuesday that he’s running for the Senate, and speculation is swirling about what the heck is going on here.

How does an 85-year-old spurned sheriff suddenly decide to run for the United States Senate?

Some say it’s because Arpaio just can’t stand being out of the spotlight.

Others say it’s because he’s nose-deep in lawyer bills, the result of his criminal prosecution for contempt of court, and wants to keep the donations pouring in, eventually to be used to pay those bills once he calls it quits on his supposed Senate campaign.

Crazy as a fox, they’re calling him.

More a mule than a fox, I’d say. More stubborn than savvy. 

Arpaio can't use that cash for his debt

Under federal law, Arpaio could not quit the Senate race and use campaign contributions to pay off pre-existing debts, several election lawyers tell me.

The law changed several decades ago to bar candidates from converting campaign money to personal cash.

ROBERTS:Arpaio just upended the Senate race

“That’s basically the one thing you can’t use campaign money for, to pay your own personal expenses,” attorney Jim Barton said. “You can give it to charity, you can give it to a party, you can give it to a candidate but you can’t keep use it for your own expenses.”

So that leaves only one other possible reason as to why Arpaio would make Tuesday’s announcement – beyond that whole craving the public spotlight thing.

Because he’s really running. Because he’s sincere in his belief that he can get elected and help Donald Trump’s agenda. (Conventional wisdom says he's can't. But then, conventional wisdom has had a rough go since 2016.)

If he runs to help Trump, that hurts Ward

Which brings me to Kelli Ward. She’s been trying to get into the Senate since Trump was doing reality TV.

When he became president, she grabbed onto his coattails. Only he didn’t reach back, not even when she jetted down to Mar-a-lago in December to try to snag a photo-op (or an endorsement).

A well-placed source tells me that Trump has been calling around in Arizona, asking whether Ward could win.

The universal reply: no. While she might win a primary, she won’t defeat Democratic Rep. Krysten Sinema in a general election.

But she could serve as spoiler to ensure that Joe Arpaio doesn’t get that chance. In a three-way race, Arpaio and Ward could split the vote, handing the Republican nomination to Rep. Martha McSally. 

On Tuesday, Ward's campaign chair welcomed Arpaio into the race, saying his entry “shows that conservatives are fed up with the status quo.” McSally, she said, “would be just another version of Jeff Flake.”

“She refused to support Donald Trump as a candidate and has been critical of him as president,” Ward said in a statement.

Arpaio has a slim chance. She has none

Meanwhile, Arpaio was an early Trump supporter and campaigned for him across the country. Since his election, Arpaio has sung the praises of the prez at every turn.

He'll have money, he'll have name ID (though that's not necessarily a good thing) and he just might snag a Trump endorsement. Ward, meanwhile, has Steve Bannon.

In other words, Arpaio has at least a slim chance of winning while Ward has none.

Given that, and Ward’s oft-stated desire to do what she could to support Donald Trump, you would think her way forward would be clear.

You’d think she’d want to do whatever it takes to ensure that McSally – who she says is “weak on immigration, supports amnesty, and opposes the border wall” – is not the Republican nominee.

That Ward would put the needs of the country, as she sees them, before her own ambition.

That she would withdraw from the race and support Arpaio.

Only don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen. 

Ward’s spokesman, Zachery Henry, told the Yellow Sheet Report that there is no chance Ward will drop out of the race and endorse Arpaio.

“None. Zero,” he said.

Yet if her goal is truly to Make America Great Again ...

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