Poll: Sheriff Joe Arpaio faces a tight re-election race

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio could be facing his toughest campaign in years, an independent poll released Thursday suggests.

Arpaio, who during more than two decades in office has typically sailed to re-election, is trailing Democrat Paul Penzone by a slight margin, according to the survey by Lincoln Strategy Group, a Tempe-based Republican political firm.

The Republican sheriff was supported by 42 percent of respondents, compared with 45 percent supporting Penzone, who is making a second run for the position. Only 14 percent of voters were undecided, and they swung largely to Penzone when asked to make a choice.

Lincoln Strategy surveyed 2,971 registered voters on July 20. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Sheriff Joe Arpaio to Republican convention: 'Donald Trump will build the wall'

"It appears that the 'toughest sheriff' in America, Joe Arpaio, is in the toughest race of his career. The voters may be saying it's finally time for a change," Lincoln Strategy's Nathan Sproul said in a written statement. "He still has plenty of time to right the ship, but needs to define Penzone quickly or it may be too late."

Sproul said his firm is not involved in the race. He noted the results are similar to an internal poll conducted by Penzone's campaign in June that showed the Democrat leading Arpaio by 4 points.

"I was curious: 'Is this (Penzone poll) really accurate or is this them trying to pump up an internal number?' " Sproul told The Arizona Republic. After seeing his own results, "I feel very confident their internal poll was accurate."

Sproul said it was unintentional that his poll went out the day a federal judge stripped Arpaio of some internal-affairs oversight in a long-running racial-profiling lawsuit in which he has been found in civil contempt of court for violating orders. The poll was released Thursday, shortly before Arpaio spoke at the Republican National Convention.

Arpaio campaign spokesman Chad Willems said he doesn't buy either survey.

"We don't put much faith in automated polls like this. Clearly someone has an agenda here," he said. "... We'll continue to campaign on the issues and stay comfortable knowing the sheriff's in a strong position to win in November."

Willems said the poll oversampled young voters and contacted only land telephone lines, not cellphones, leading to unreliable results.

Federal judge strips Arpaio of some internal affairs oversight

The survey also found GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump comfortably leading Democrat Hillary Clinton, 41 percent to 32 percent, in Maricopa County.

"Any serious political observer would question a poll that shows an unknown candidate for sheriff (like Penzone) is outperforming Hillary Clinton in Maricopa County," Willems said.

But Penzone campaign spokeswoman Stacy Pearson said the Lincoln Strategy poll underscores voters' disgust with the sheriff.

"We're not surprised at all," Pearson said. "Our polls skewed conservative. This one skewed a little young, which you would assume is a little more liberal. Regardless of age or income or gender or political affiliation, the problems with Arpaio's performance are resonating with voters."

Pearson said voters want a change.

Arpaio must win a four-way GOP primary against Dan Saban, Marsha Hill and Wayne Baker on Aug. 30 before advancing to challenge Penzone in the fall.