Democrats say O'Halleran leads Babeu for Congress
Democrat Tom O'Halleran leads Republican Paul Babeu by 7 percentage points with many undecideds in their congressional race, according to a new poll conducted for Democrats in the rural district.
The same poll found Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in the sprawling 1st District.
Republicans have not shared any polling of their own, leaving it unclear how closely their assessment of the race aligns with the Democratic poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group. The poll has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.
The Democratic poll finds O'Halleran leading 45 percent to 38 percent over Babeu among likely voters. Seventeen percent of respondents refused to choose or were undecided.
O'Halleran's lead is unchanged from August, but the source of his support has shifted, Democrats found.
In particular, O'Halleran went from trailing by 14 percentage points among independent voters to leading with that group by 5 points, the poll found. The poll also found Babeu is much more known than O'Halleran, and that among those who know them, O' Halleran is more popular.
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Barrett Marson, a spokesman for Babeu's campaign, dismissed the poll but said it shows the pricey attacks on Babeu haven't changed the race.
"This is a partisan poll that even with their one-sided data they admit their outrageous attacks on the sheriff have not moved the needle a single point," he said. "Arizonans are smarter than that."
It is clear at this point that Democrats are investing in the state's 1st Congressional District and Republicans are not, at least so far.
As of Tuesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had spent nearly $750,000 in the race, overwhelmingly on negative ads against Babeu, the Pinal County sheriff.
By contrast, the National Republican Congressional Committee has not spent anything in the race, according to records with the Federal Election Commission. Two years ago, the NRCC had spent nearly $1.8 million by Sept. 26 attacking U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., who was running for re-election in the 1st District.
Democrats have focused their attention on Babeu's tenure as headmaster of the DeSisto School, a now-shuttered private school for emotionally troubled youths in Massachusetts that was investigated for abuse and neglect allegations. That state closed its investigation years later without adverse findings against Babeu or others, but DeSisto did agree to stop certain practices, such as group showers and putting students in chairs facing corners for hours at a time. In a videotape unearthed earlier this year, Babeu is seen describing details of "cornering" students, one of the practices that he later said he didn't know about.
"Paul Babeu is one of the most scandal-ridden and unqualified candidates in recent memory. From overseeing the inhumane abuse of special needs students at the DeSisto School to misusing public funds as sheriff, Babeu has a very disturbing record that voters are just starting to learn more about. This poll reflects the simple fact that Arizonans don’t want to be represented by someone that they can’t trust,” said DCCC Spokesman Tyler Law.