Roberts: Arizona to lose $1.7 billion in 2020 under Senate health bill
Laurie Roberts: Legislative analysts estimate a $1.7 billion loss in federal healthcare funding in 2020 if Graham-Cassidy passes. John McCain, are you listening?
Laurie Roberts
Arizona could lose 35 percent of its federal funding for Medicaid in 2020 if Congress adopts the Senate’s plan latest health-care plan.
I know the prospect a $1.7 billion drop in the state’s healthcare fortunes is meaningless when compared with the prospect of a meteoric rise in Gov. Doug Ducey’s political fortunes. But I’m hoping Sen. John McCain, at least, is paying attention to the cost to his state of the Graham-Cassidy replacement for Obamacare.
A preliminary analysis released Thursday by staffers of the Joint Legislative Budget Committee shows the state currently gets more than $3.7 billion in federal funding for Medicaid expansion and the health exchange. By 2020, that’s set to grow to nearly $4.9 billion.
Under Graham-Cassidy, it would instead shrink to just under $3.2 billion.
Cost to the state in 2020: $1,706,000,000.
But wait, there’s more.
Hospital tax would evaporate
The drop in federal funding could mean the end of the hospital assessment imposed in 2012 when Medicaid was expanded. That would leave the state to find another $286.5 million to cover single adults living in poverty, people entitled to Medicaid since Arizona voters in 2004 expanded AHCCCS to include everyone under the federal poverty line.
“State statute requires repeal of the Hospital Assessment if the match rate for ACA Medicaid expansion falls below 80%,” the JLBC analysis says. “Since federal Medicaid funding for ACA expansion populations would be eliminated, the bill could potentially result in the repeal of the Hospital Assessment, which currently provides $286.5 million in state matching funds for the Medicaid program.”
ROBB:Actually, Graham-Cassidy would help Arizona
Add in another loss of $34 million in premium taxes as fewer people with insurance means fewer policies to tax.
The JLBC report notes that the state would save money by no longer having to pick up any of the cost to cover Native Americans.
"The magnitude of the savings are unknown, however, due to recent federal regulatory guidance that will likely allow the state to claim a significant portion of these potential savings under current law."
Whatever the amount, I'm guessing it won't cover the nearly $2 billion we stand to lose.
Ducey's not listening. Is McCain?
Despite that, Ducey’s support for passing Graham-Cassidy – which just coincidentally came less than 48 hours after a phone call from President Donald Trump -- remains solid.
Spokesman Daniel Scarpinato told Capitol Media Services’ Howard Fischer that JLBC’s analysis “ignores policy provisions that are likely to positively impact Arizona.”
What those are, Scarpinato apparently couldn’t say as the governor jumped to endorse this thing before analyzing the impact of the bill.
One would think such an analysis would be done before you leap to support a bill that could leave 425,000 Arizonans without health insurance.
Or that a governor might want to wait for other various analyses, all of which show Arizona as a big loser under Graham-Cassidy.
But. No.
Meanwhile, add yet another voice of opposition from the health-care industry. The Arizona Nurses Association on Thursday issued this warning about the bill:
“This legislation threatens health-care coverage for hundreds of thousands of Arizonans and may lead to the elimination of protections for individuals with pre-existing conditions.”
Sen, McCain, you are listening, aren’t you?
MORE FROM ROBERTS:
McCain should listen to himself, not Ducey, on health care